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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans improving together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still